http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/13/world/meast/iran-saudi-plot/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

This article says collaborating sources, two unnamed sources, have given the US information that confirms the plot to kill Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the US Adel Al-Jubeir. Obama said, without directly quoting, that the US would not be bringing this forward if they did not have evidence to back it up and that Iran pays for this activity. The article goes on to state that there is enough gathered intelligence reports that back up the accusation, the facts laying open for “all to see”. Obama also praises good intelligence work in foiling the plot as all diplomats to other countries should be protected by the country they are in. He also said that he would make sure that Iran “pays a price” for this kind of activity. The article does not clarify what the report says except to say that it is supportive and collaborative to the plot. The Iranian representative to the UN wrote a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon , which Iran denied involvement in any activity, that Iran bans terrorism and is a victim of terrorism siting the death of important nuclear scientists when “Zionists” bombed the nuclear facility and that the US supports Israel, that the latest move against Iran by the US is politically motivated, and that Iran wants friendly relationships with surrounding countries especially Muslim ones. “The Iranian nation seeks a world free from terrorism and considers the current U.S. warmongering and propaganda machine against Iran as a threat not just against itself but to the peace and stability in the Persian Gulf region. The Islamic Republic of Iran warns against the implications of this horrible scenario and submits that the continuation of such divide-and-rule policies could have detrimental effects on peace and security.” The US representative to the UN, Susan Rice, also wrote the UN Secretary-General that the plot seriously threatens international peace and security. She also named the Iranian officials involved as Hamed Abdollahi, Abdul Reza Shahlai and Ali Gholam Shakuri. The man held in custody for his involvement of the plot, Manssor Arbabsiar, was arrested in September while the second suspect, Gholam Shakuri, is still at large. The plot to kill the Saudi Arabian diplomat and Israeli diplomat using explosives at a crowded restaurant in Washington and in Buenos Aires. An informant named the price for assisting them at $1.5 million. He was paid $100,000 by Arbabsiar who claimed his “cousin” had deep pockets. Though it is unclear why the Saudi diplomat was targeted, it is equally unclear that the all of the Iranian government knew of the plot. It is also unclear who may have supported the plot, such as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, beyond the three named conspirators.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/14/us/iran-saudi-arbabsiar-profile/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

This article describes the captured assassination plotter Manssor Arbabsiar. A coworker, who shared a used auto lot with him, named David Tomscha. The former partner said that Arbabsiar was disorganized and if it wasn’t for his wife he would have been homeless as he often forgot to pay bills which he had the money to pay for. He is quoted as saying: “If they wanted 007, I think they got Mr. Bean” in response for his opinion on the plotter. Tomscha also mentioned that the plotter could not get the years of the cars he was selling correct, often telling people the wrong year. “I don’t think he’s the Manchurian candidate,” said Tomscha. “He came over. He liked this country. He made money here.” Another man named Mitchel Hamauei, said he was shocked that Arbabsiar would be involved in such a thing because he did not have strong political or religious view. Hamauei has known Arbabsiar for 20 years having met him through Iranian friends. He also said “It was shocking because it didn’t seem like he would be the type of person to do something like that” about the plotter. The article briefly describes the plot, price given to do the act, and lists the three charges leveled against Arbabsiar which are conspiracy to murder a foreign official, conspiracy to use a weapon of mass destruction and conspiracy to commit an act of terrorism.

Is there really an Iranian plot? Is any of this information really accurate considering the nature of the held Iranian American?

During the years of the Presidency of the son George Bush, there were detailed reports and grainy footage of what was believed to be “weapons of mass destruction”. These types of weapons had been used on Kurds in Iraq, devastating whole towns and killing all occupants from the tiniest baby to the oldest people. While arguably the delay from the announcement of war to the actual attack was enough time for Saddam Hussein to hide this weapons elsewhere, when occupying the country no such weapons were found. As a matter of fact, not only were these weapons not found, the entire basis for the attack was fabricated in order to achieve Bush’s desire (perhaps revenge for the assassination attempt or simply the need to crush the man) or at least manufactured in a manner that made Colin L. Powell look like an idiot and our country like warmongering fools. With that in mind, consider that: A) intelligence reports can be fabricated or manufactured to tailor the needs of the Commander in Chief, B) While different than the Iraq situation, when Iranians argued for help during an obviously manipulated election that re-elected Ajmadinejad, Obama was unable to assist because there was no real cause to go in there militarily, C) War equals good economy is still a primary belief for politicians, though it has turned into a myth in modern times as the last two wars we have engaged in has hurt us economically instead of helping economically and D) It is the job of the host country to protect their foreign ambassadors.

Thus, there is a very viable reason to doubt that the intelligence is accurate as well as that Arbabsiar was capable of being a covertly placed terrorist in the respect that he is painted as one. I have serious doubts of his involvement due to his inability to remember years of vehicles or to pay debts necessary for his own survival. His wife, probably noting that he was unable to remember to pay bills, took over and saved him from becoming homeless. That’s not the only hole in the portrait painted by his two friends, it is the fact that he did not really seem interested in politics or religious indignation. The fact that he is named as a suspect is suspect. The collaboration of other sources of intelligence that supports the accusation could also very easily be furnished by US employees who support a war with Iran or gave a report at the behest of their superiors. Until sources are named and proper credentials are presented that show any data from them would be accurate, I must doubt the reality of the threat as well as the implications of this man who is described as being “Mr. Bean” not “007”. Why?

Let’s allege that the plot was funded by Iranian government and military officials. The $100,000 could have easily come from the suspect at large, as his surname matches the governmental and military personnel involved in the plot. Now, if one were to view the activity at face value, the attempt or purchase of an assassination of a Saudi diplomat was not only very clumsy, but it was very unlike what Iran has done in the past on the political front. It makes little to no sense that they would not recruit a capable, responsible, and intellectually sharp individual to do the purchasing or contracting of the “informant”. Why would they hire “Mr. Bean” when they could have, and should have, hired someone brilliantly credentialed to employ? It is suggestive that the plotters in the government and military of Iran are either very stupid and fumbling or very uninterested in covert activity that would actually produce the result they desire. It seems unlike Iran, who could easily do a covert action with quality employees and possibly succeed at the attempt, to be this bumbling and deviant to their usual modis operandi. It also seems unlikely that if they were actually serious about killing a diplomat in a foreign country, I seriously doubt the government would lie and deny the entire plot. One thing anyone can observe about the Iranian government is that they do not mince words, they do not lie, and they are forthcoming and sincere when caught with their hands in the proverbial “cookie jar”.

Sure, one could consider that there is no love lost between Sunni Muslims, who are the majority in Saudi Arabia, and Shi’ite Muslims, who are the majority in Iran. If they wanted to “hit” Sunnis hard or with a heavy hand, I am sure that the ambassador to the US from Saudi Arabia would not be that target. The observation of any outsider looking in to the US in a manner to employ explosives to commit acts of terrorism would note that this kind of attempt would easily be detected as the governmental ability to follow any “hits” to bomb making websites, that bomb making material attainment requires one must be licensed to purchase. In light of the attack on the Murrah Building, the ability of one to easily carry out such a plot is very limited especially since there are many new security protocols in place that would prevent just such an attack. I also sincerely doubt, given the prowess of Iran, that they would desire to carry out such an attack on American soil as it would prompt as an “act of war”. If Iran wanted to hit Saudi Arabia, they would have done so on Saudi Arabian soil or Iranian soil, not American. It is unlike Iran to do something so deliberately stupid.

Since one cannot always trust “reliable intelligence sources” since the invasion of Iraq and the consequent occupation of that country, I further doubt the implication of the Iranian government and military in the plot. The reason being that intelligence was sought to make ends meet on justifying that war. If it couldn’t be found, it was manufactured in order to garner support international and native support for a war. I am unable to trust the “multiple” reports from mysterious unnamed sources as being accurate and not manipulated by those who want yet another war funded by taxes better spent to solve our internal problems. The truth behind these reports is flimsy, if not suspect, therefore making it hard to note that Iranian officials would engage in such a plot. I doubt also that the reports have enough merit to justify military action of any kind, yet the Obama alludes to the fact that he would launch a campaign if necessary. Every report issued forth is questionable mainly due to past experience. However, dear reader, you may of course draw your own conclusion.

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